Here is the statistical scouting report for the CWHL 2016 Clarkson Cup Final between Les Canadiennes and the Calgary Inferno (looks like I was wrong about the outcome!). These statistics are all pulled from the CWHL Analytics file which I put together based on the game sheets. They will include only head to head games between Les Canadiennes and the Calgary Inferno from the 2015-2016 CWHL season.
At the team level Les Canadiennes have won four of the six matches with the Calgary Inferno this season. In terms of shots for the teams have been essentially even through the second and third periods, however in the first period Les Canadiennes are controlling 58% of the shots.
The goals for percentages tell a different story with the Calgary Inferno getting 60% of the goals for in the first period but Les Canadiennes are over 60% goals for in the second and third periods.
Les Canadiennes also get more offensive support from their defense when they play the Calgary Inferno with 13% more of their first points (goals and first assists) coming from defenders.
When the game is CLOSE (within one goal in the first and second periods or tied in the third period) the Calgary Inferno have a distinct advantage scoring over 60% of the goals for.
If Les Canadiennes can hold off the Calgary Inferno in the first period and then get up a couple goals that would be a key to victory for them.
In terms of Total Player Rating (95% correlation to winning) Jill Saulnier, Brianne Jenner and Rebecca Johnston have been the best forwards for the Calgary Inferno against Les Canadiennes. On defense their best have been Aina Takeuchi and Kanae Aoki.
A way to get an indication of which players have contributed most to generating offense is to determine how many goals scored while they were on the ice that the player either scored or had the first assist. By this statistic the key forwards are Jenna Cunningham, Jillian Saulnier, Jessica Campbell and Elena Lovell. On defense only Kanae Aoki has the goal or the first assist on 50% of the goals while she was on the ice.
It appears Les Canadiennes have done a great job shutting down the Calgary Inferno defense and some of their key players like Hayley Wickenhesier, Jacquie Pierri and Erica Kromm.
For Les Canadiennes the best forwards by Total Player Rating against the Calgary Inferno have been Marie-Philip Poulin, Ann-Sophie Bettez, Caroline Ouellette and Kim Deschenes. While the best defenders have been Lauriane Rougeau, Carly Hill, Karell Emard, Cathy Chartrand and Julie Chu.
In terms of generating offense at the forward position the key players have been Marie-Philip Poulin and Caroline Ouellette as the only two players with the goal or first assist on more than 50% of the goals scored while they were on the ice. On defense Chelsey Saunders is the only player over 35% in this measure.
It is interesting to note while Lauriane Rougeau has five points in six games just 27% of the goals scored while she was on the ice saw her either score the goal or get the first assist.
There are two key players for the Calgary Inferno to shut down, if they can, in Marie-Philip Poulin and Caroline Ouellette. Four of Ouellette’s five goals have come in the second period while Marie-Philip Poulin has shown her clutch performances with six of her eight goals coming in the third period.
On defense for the Calgary Inferno here are each player’s most common partners and the goals for percentage while they were on the ice together with the best pairings bolded.
Kelsey Webster/Hayleigh Cudmore 100%
Laura Dostaler/Hayleigh Cudmore 57%
Laura Dostaler/Meghan Mikkelson-Reid 50%
Kanae Aoki/Erica Kromm 50%
Kanae Aoki/Aina Takeuchi 67%
Kane Aoki/Hayleigh Cudmore 67%
Erica Kromm/Hayleigh Cudmore 50%
Jacquie Pierri/Erica Kromm 0%
Megahn Mikkelson-Reid/Aina Takeuchi 33%
Aina Takeuchi/Hayleigh Cudmore 0%
Aina Takeuchi/Erica Kromm 0%
On defense for Les Canadiennes here are each player’s most common partners and the goals for percentage while they were on the ice together with the best pairings bolded.
Lauriane Rougeau/Julie Chu 71%
Lauriane Rougeau/Carly Hill 81%
Lauriane Rougeau/Cathy Chartrand 0%
Lauriane Rougeau/Karell Emard 100%
Carly Hill/Cathy Chartrand 100%
Carly Hill/Chelsey Saunders 50%
Carly Hill/Karell Emard 100%
Carly Hill/Sophie Brault 0%
Cathy Chartrand/Karell Emard 33%
Cathy Chartrand/Julie Chu 50%
Cathy Chartrand/Chelsey Saunders 100%
Chelsey Saunders/Karell Emard 0%
Clearly Les Canadiennes have a distinct advantage in goal with Charline Labonte out performing Delyane Brian this season in head to head match-ups.
During head to head match-ups this season Les Canadiennes have been the better team on offense, defense and in goal. Based on the goals for per game at the team level I predict a 4-2 victory for Les Canadiennes in the 2016 Clarkson Cup. Sorry Inferno fans!